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Russian entrepreneur hails China's economic performance

Russian and Chinese macro-economic fundamentals are among the best in the world, head of Global Markets in Troika Dialog investment company, Peter Ghavami, told Xinhua during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

"There are several reasons for that," Ghavami, also a partner of the famed Troika Dialog, explained.

"First, Russia has very low debt level, either private debt or public debt. In the second instance, inflation in Russia year-by- year has been lower than six percent, which has not happened for the last 20 years," he reminded. The low-level debt, combined with low-inflation environment, helped Russian economy to recover mush faster than it was expected.

"We expect this year Russian economy to rise by over five percent. Of course, on the negative side, we are coming up with the very low base level. In other words, there are still a lot of things to do and there is an insufficient rate of bonds for corporations that needed. We expect there will be positive loan growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year," the economist said.

Russia has successfully gone through the crisis and it must secure its modernization prospects now, he added.

"The most challenging thing for Russia is to make sure that modernization will not happen from the top to down. The process should be organic -- in the way China does. That's why investing in education is a real key to future modernization," he said.

As for the financial sector, the economist forecasted a sharp decrease of the private debt and a massive increase in the debt of the public sector in Russia.

"In order to leave this crisis behind us, we need to leverage the debt of public sector. It will take five to 10 years of normal growth to achieve," he specified.

Russia is not alone in terms of economic achievements, he mentioned. Other emerging economies, first of all BRIC countries, including Russia, China, Brazil and India, have suppressed the crisis much faster than other countries.

"BRIC countries have become the engine of global economy. If you look at global growth over the next 20 years, 80 percent of global growth will come from emerging markets. And the BRIC countries are the key countries that will contribute to the growth, " the economist noted.

"The world today is very much geopolitical, where every country sets its interests apart. That does not mean, however, that certain countries could not share interests. What BRIC countries have in common is that they want very much to make sure that they have a voice," Ghavami concluded.

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