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British service sector to continue strong growth in 2014

Strong growth in Britain's services sector in the final quarter of 2013 revealed in the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures released on Monday points to continued growth in 2014 economists said.

Suren Thiru, UK economist with the business representative organization British Chambers of Commerce, told Xinhua Monday afternoon, "The overall picture is bright. Every month last year we saw growth.

That highlights the fact that the service sector is doing well. The service sector is going to be a key driver of growth in 2014."

The PMI figure of 58.8 (above 50 is growth) was a disappointment, said John Zhu, UK economist with HSBC Global Research, but only in that it was lower than November's figure of 60 which had been the highest figure since 1998, and the consensus expectation for December which was 60.3.

Zhu said that most subcomponents in the services PMI had fallen from historic highs in recent months, [Hong Kong Company Formation]but remained strong.

"However, the labor market picture held up, which suggests a sustained recovery in employment. The question remains whether or when this leads to wages increases, which monetary policymakers may find more difficult to look through,"said Zhu.

Zhu remarked, "The overall Q4 average for business activity still implies strong growth for the quarter. However, the official index of services data only showed 0.1 percent month-on-month growth in October, despite the PMI having reached the second-highest reading on record at that time."

"So either the surveys are coming into line with official data, or with the current PMI and new orders readings still historically high, the official data could be underreporting the strength of the economy," he said.

Employment was strong, and joined the strong employment figures in the construction and manufacturing PMI figures announced last week.

This is an important indicator, [Offshore Company Incorporation]as the central bank the Bank of England (BOE) has named 7 percent unemployment as the threshold at which it will consider raising the bank rate. Unemployment is currently 7.4 percent.

The services activity index averaged 60.4 in Q4 2013 which was up marginally from 60.3 in Q3 and was the best quarterly average since the second quarter of 1997.

The PMI for services, manufacturing and construction indicate that the economy lost some momentum in December but still expanded at a healthy clip, said Dr Howard Archer, chief UK economist with IHS Global Insight.

"It still looks very possible that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 could have at least matched the 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion achieved in the third quarter,"he said.

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